You know, every season when the NBA schedule drops, I get that same familiar itch. It’s not just about picking winners and losers anymore; for me, the real chess match is in the Over/Under totals. It feels less about which superstar has a hot hand on a given night and more about solving a complex puzzle of pace, defense, and coaching tendencies. I approach it almost like building a team in a strategy game. I was recently playing this tactical shooter, Metal Slug Tactics, and it struck me how similar the thought process is. You don’t just throw your strongest characters at a problem. Sure, Rolf’s knife does massive damage up close, but sometimes Marco’s pistol, even if the numbers are lower, is the smarter play because he can pick off a dangerous enemy from behind cover without risking your whole squad. That’s the essence of a good Over/Under bet: it’s not about the flashiest star; it’s about finding the right tool, the right angle, for that specific matchup.

Let me give you a concrete example from last season that still stings, but taught me a lot. It was a mid-January game: Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz. On paper, the total was set at a robust 232.5 points. Both teams had elite offensive engines in Jokic and Mitchell. The casual instinct is to hammer the Over, right? High-powered offenses, a track record of shootouts. But I looked deeper, like checking a character’s passive bonuses before a mission. The game was in Utah, at altitude, on the second night of a back-to-back for Denver. More critically, both teams were hovering around the 15th and 16th spots in defensive rating—not great, but not the tire fires everyone assumed. The real key was pace. Denver was dead last in possessions per game at a snail-like 97.8, and Utah wasn’t much faster. This game was destined to be a half-court grind, a war of execution rather than a track meet. I took the Under. The final score? Denver 108, Utah 104. Total points: 212. That Under hit by over 20 points. It wasn’t sexy, but it was the Marco’s-pistol-from-cover play. While everyone was focused on the raw damage output of the stars, the conditions of the game dictated a slower, lower-scoring affair.

This season, my strategy is evolving, and it revolves heavily around two often-overlooked factors: coaching changes and referee crews. A new coach installing a system is like unlocking a new hero in a game run. Their unique mix of philosophies can completely alter a team’s output. Take Ime Udoka going to Houston. He’s a defensive-minded disciplinarian. The Rockets were a sieve last year, giving up nearly 119 points per game. I’m willing to bet—and I have on a few early games—that their Unders will be undervalued for the first month or two as the market adjusts to their new, grittier identity. On the flip side, a team like Indiana, now led by an offensive guru (even if it’s a hypothetical one), might see their Overs become a bit more reliable as they push the pace. You have to track these systemic shifts like you’d experiment with team compositions. Maybe the old meta was to bet Over on all Sacramento games, but with a key defensive addition or a coaching tweak, that edge evaporates.

Then there’s the referee variable, the ultimate random encounter. I keep a simple spreadsheet. Crews led by referees like Tony Brothers or Scott Foster tend to call games tighter, averaging, in my tracking, about 4-5 more total free throw attempts per game. That might not sound like much, but those are clock-stopping, guaranteed points. Over a 48-minute game, those extra trips to the line can easily add 6-8 points to the total. If I see a total set at 226.5 and a “whistle-happy” crew is assigned, that Over suddenly looks a lot more appealing. It’s a passive bonus, just like a character trait that increases your team’s critical hit chance. You wouldn’t ignore it in a game, so why ignore it here?

Of course, no strategy is foolproof. Injuries are the ultimate boss fight you can’t always prepare for. A key defender like Jrue Holiday sitting out doesn’t just hurt his team’s defense; it often speeds the game up, making an Over more likely. But here’s my personal preference: I lean towards Unders early in the season. Why? Defense is about communication and system familiarity, which takes time. Offenses are usually ahead of defenses in October and November. The market, however, often sets totals based on last season’s finishing numbers or preseason hype, which is almost always offensively skewed. I find more value spotting those inflated totals and betting against them while teams are still figuring things out. By December, things usually balance out.

So as you dive into the slate of games this week, don’t just look at the big names. Be a tactician. Ask yourself: Is this a Rolf’s-knife situation—a fast-paced, high-possession showdown where brute offensive force will win? Or is it a Marco’s-pistol game, where the under-the-radar factors like travel fatigue, a slow pace, or a particular referee’s tendencies will dictate a lower-scoring, strategic battle? The box score will only show you who won. A smart Over/Under pick shows you understood how the game was going to be played long before the jump ball. That’s the win that feels most satisfying to me.